GMAT真题解析Medium难度—气象学：地球真的越来越热了吗？

给大家看一篇Medium难度的气象学文章，按照国际惯例，大家一定先看文章然后做题目，做完题目了再看解析哦

This passage is excerpted from material published in 1997.

Scientists have been puzzled by the seeming disparity between models of global warming based on greenhouse gas emissions and actual climatological data. In short, the world is not warming up as much as these models have predicted. In the early 1990s, Pat Michaels sought to explain this disparity, suggesting that sulfate emissions in industrial areas had a cooling effect, thus temporarily retarding global warming. Michaels later came to doubt this idea, however, pointing out that since most sulfate is emitted in the Northern Hemisphere, its cooling influence should be largely limited to that hemisphere. Yet, since 1987, warming in the Southern Hemisphere, which had been relatively intense, has virtually ceased, while warming in the north has accelerated. Thus, Michaels not only doubted the idea of sulfate cooling, but came to feel that global warming models themselves may be flawed.Ben Santer disagrees. Santer contends that, in general, global warming occurs more slowly in the south because this hemisphere is dominated by oceans, which warm more slowly than the landmasses that dominate the Northern Hemisphere. But, according to Santer, the situation remains complicated by sulfate cooling, which peaked in the north in the mid-twentieth century. It drastically slowed warming in the Northern Hemisphere, and warming in the Southern Hemisphere raced ahead. Since 1987, Santer argues, the greenhouse effect has reasserted itself, and the north has taken the lead. Thus, Santer disputes Michaels’s claim that model predictions and observed data differ fundamentally.

1.The passage suggests that, in the early 1990s, Michaels would have been most likely to agree with which of the following statements about the disparity mentioned in the lines 1?

(A)This disparity is relatively less extreme in the Northern Hemisphere because of sulfate cooling.

(B)This disparity is only a short-term phenomenon brought about by sulfate cooling.

(C)This disparity is most significant in those parts of the world dominated by oceans.

(D)The extent of this disparity is being masked by the temporary effect of sulfate cooling.

(E)The disparity confirms that current models of global warming are correct.

2.According to the passage, Santer asserts which of the following about global warming?

(A)It will become a more serious problem in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere in spite of the cooling influence of oceans in the south.

(B)It is unlikely to be a serious problem in the future because of the pervasive effect of sulfate cooling.

(C)It will proceed at the same general rate in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres once the temporary influence of sulfate cooling comes to an end.

(D)Until the late 1980s, it was moderated in the Northern Hemisphere by the effect of sulfate cooling.

(E)Largely because of the cooling influence of oceans, it has had no discernible impact on the Southern Hemisphere.

3.The passage suggests that Santer and Michaels would be most likely to DISAGREE over which of the following issues?

(A)Whether climatological data invalidates global warming models

(B)Whether warming in the Northern Hemisphere has intensified since 1987

(C)Whether disparities between global warming models and climatological data can be detected

(D)Whether landmasses warm more rapidly than oceans

(E)Whether oceans have a significant effect on global climate patterns

这篇文章是典型的现象解释/问题解决型文章（多个解释）

这篇文章的难点在于理解第2段Santer的解释，为了帮助大家更好的理解这个机理，我给大家画了一幅图，刚好这块也有考题

先看我给大家写的结构图

文章结构大家应该理解了，接下来我们来看题目第1题：Inference题

根据题干in the early 1990s, 可以定位到首段第3句：In the early 1990s, Pat Michaels sought to explain this disparity, suggesting that sulfate emissions in industrial areas had a cooling effect, thus temporarily retarding global warming. B选项正确，short-term phenomenon替换了原句中的temporarily. A错因为关键句没有区分Northern Hemisphere以及Southern Hemisphere. Michaels后来doubt了他自己的观点之后才开始区分；C错因为这是第2段Santer的解释，不是Michaels的解释；D错因为mask这个词，mask掩饰，掩盖的意思，根据Michaels的观点, 这个disparity是存在的而不是被sulfate cooling给掩盖了；E错因为为了解释首句的disparity, Michaels在early 1900s的时候假设the models of global warming 是正确的，但是他没有将这个disparity作为他认为model正确的证据。

第2题：Supporting idea题

根据题干可以定位到第2段Santer的解释，理解了Santer的解释以后直接看选项，正确答案是D，D对应这句话：It drastically slowed warming in the Northern Hemisphere, and warming in the Southern Hemisphere raced ahead.（第2段第5~6行）moderate改写了原句的drastically slowed.

A错因为根据Santer，1987年之后北半球比南半球热得更快，所以A说反了

B错因为sulfate cooling的影响是暂时的，不是长久的，并且也是不是pervasive普遍的。C错因为the same general rate错了，没有了sulfate cooling的影响，global warming在南半球会发展的很慢因为greater ocean coverage there. E错因为no discernible impact错了，只是发展的慢，不代表察觉不到这样的impact.

第3题：Inference题

题干问Santer和Michaels的观点不同之处在哪里。disagree: be of different opinions，并不是两个人都不同意的意思。根据题干可以对应第1段末句：Thus, Michaels not only doubted the idea of sulfate cooling, but came to feel that global warming models themselves may be flawed. + 文章末句：Thus, Santer disputes Michaels’s claim that model predictions and observed data differ fundamentally. disputes对应题干中的disagree. A选项正确，Michaels认为这个model不对，而Santer认为model prediction与observed data是一致的。

B和C错因为这是两个人都同意的；D和E只是Santer的观点